Dan Graziano
Oh, we’re getting there people. Pads will soon be popping. And the 53-man roster projections will soon be projecting. Some teams have already had players report for training camp, and every team will have by this time next week. Before long, we’ll start learning which of our NFL offseason takes were overreactions and which ones weren’t.
But why wait?
It’s time for the training camp edition of the overreactions column, where I take a few conclusions you might have drawn from teams’ offseason activity and tell you whether they’re overreactions.
More overreactions from Graziano:
Free agency | Draft | Schedule release
Jump to a section:
NFC North teams | KC’s title streak
CLE’s QB room | WSH’s division hopes
Baker Mayfield’s breakout
All four NFC North teams will make the playoffs
Three of them made it last season. The Lions and Vikings combined to win 29 games, dueling until the final game of the regular season to decide not only the division title, but the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs. The Packers went 11-6 with the youngest roster in the league. Four of those losses were to the Lions and Vikings, and another was to the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles.
The Bears? Well, they went 5-12, but things should be different this season with former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson as their head coach. They also made a bunch of offensive personnel changes that should help kick-start the development of 2024 No. 1 pick Caleb Williams.
Johnson didn’t jump from the division’s best team to its worst team thinking about a long-term rebuild. The Bears want to be a factor right away. And with a rebuilt offensive line, a couple of new skill players on offense and Dennis Allen coaching the defense, you can see how they might be. Since 2020 — the first season in which the NFL’s expanded playoff format made it possible — no division has sent all four of its teams to the playoffs in the same season. But it’s bound to happen at some point, and this division looks loaded.
The verdict: OVERREACTION
Chicago’s the key to making this happen, but it still seems a little bit too soon with its current roster. The Bears play 10 games against teams that made last season’s playoffs, plus games against the Cowboys and Bengals, who should be improved. Tough schedule, tough division. And even if the Bears do break through this year, their success is likely to come at the expense of at least one of their division rivals.
As for the rest of the NFC, the Eagles still look awesome. The Commanders appear primed to build on last season’s surprise NFC Championship Game run. The 49ers should bounce back and challenge the Rams in the NFC West. Quarterback Dak Prescott’s return could make Dallas a factor in the always-unpredictable East. Heck, maybe the NFC South could get more than one team. … OK, sorry. That’s taking it too far. But the point is, it’s not as if there aren’t playoff-caliber teams elsewhere in the conference. It’s going to be tough for the North to get four teams in.
The Chiefs’ streak of nine straight AFC West titles will come to an end
Here’s another division in which three teams made last year’s playoffs. The team that didn’t hired Pete Carroll as head coach and traded for QB Geno Smith. Why can’t this be the division that gets all four teams in? Are the Broncos- and Chargers-shaped objects in Kansas City’s rearview mirror closer than they appear?
Denver beefed up its already excellent defense with Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga, and it brought in tight end Evan Engram to give second-year QB Bo Nix another target. The Chargers added a couple of new running backs, a couple of new wide receivers and signed 6-foot-7, 363-pound guard Mekhi Becton away from the Super Bowl champs to further strengthen their offensive line.
The Raiders made major upgrades at coach and quarterback. They also plan to build a running game around rookie running back Ashton Jeanty, who was one of the best players in the draft at any position. Everyone’s gunning for quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, who looked wobbly at times last season and saw their flimsy pass protection get embarrassingly exposed in the Super Bowl.
1:25
Why Sam Acho isn’t putting anyone over the Chiefs in the AFC
Sam Acho explains why the Chiefs are still ahead of the Bills and Ravens in the AFC.
The verdict: OVERREACTION
As wobbly as the Chiefs looked last season, they still won 15 games in the regular season and 17 total. They finished four games ahead of the Chargers and five ahead of the Broncos in spite of conceding the final game of the season in Denver by sitting their starters.
That’s a ton of ground for those teams to make up, even if they both have improved their rosters. Especially because the Chiefs probably got better, too!
They believe they’ve improved at left tackle by signing Jaylon Moore and drafting Josh Simmons in the first round. Wide receiver Rashee Rice was sentenced Thursday to 30 days in jail, which can be served at any point during a five-year probationary period, but is back from the injury that ended his season early. Additionally, Hollywood Brown is back from the ACL injury that forced him to start his season late. Add in the improvements that 2024 first-round pick Xavier Worthy made throughout last season, and Mahomes has reason to feel a lot better about his wide receiver group.
A healthy running back Isiah Pacheco and a slimmed-down tight end Travis Kelce help round out a skill group determined to avenge that embarrassing Super Bowl loss. The Chiefs aren’t giving this division up easily.
At least three of the Browns’ current quarterbacks will start games for them this season
Without Deshaun Watson, who’s making another $46 million this season but is likely to miss most, if not all, of it while recovering from an Achilles injury, the Browns’ current QB depth chart includes Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett and rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders. There’s a lot of speculation that one of those guys could get traded between now and the start of the season. But even if that happens, it’ll still be a crowded room with more questions than answers.
Odds are that one of the veterans — Flacco or Pickett — will open the season as the starter. But given the Browns’ history at the position and that most teams use more than one starting quarterback per season, it’s fair to assume the Week 1 starter won’t necessarily be the same in Week 17.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The trade the Browns made with the Jaguars to allow Jacksonville to move up to draft Travis Hunter left Cleveland with an extra first-round pick in the 2026 draft. At that point, there will be just one year left on Watson’s contract and the team surely will have moved on from the idea of him as its long-term future (if it hasn’t already).
With two first-rounders in a draft that’s expected to be better at QB than this year’s, the Browns will need to go into next offseason with some certainty about who they already have on the roster. Even if Flacco or Pickett opens the season as the starter, Cleveland needs to find out what it has in third-round pick Gabriel or fifth-round pick Sanders. It seems like an absolute slam-dunk that at least three quarterbacks will start games for the Browns this season.
It’s the Commanders’ turn to win the NFC East
Not much was expected of the Commanders last season, but they were one of the great surprises. Led by new head coach Dan Quinn and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, the Commanders won their final five games of the regular season (including one against the Eagles) to make the playoffs as a wild card. Then they upset the Buccaneers and Lions to advance to the NFC Championship Game.
Washington’s 12-5 record put the team only two games behind Philadelphia, and they traded for veterans such as left tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. in an effort to take the next step and maximize Daniels’ rookie-contract window. The Eagles still look phenomenal and deservedly will open as the division favorites, but no team has repeated as NFC East champion since 2004. The Commanders have their sights set on bigger things in 2025.
2:16
Can the Commanders surpass the Eagles in the NFC East?
Mike Tannenbaum and Peter Rosenberg detail why they have the Commanders winning the NFC East.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
It’s probably actually the Giants’ turn, because every other NFC East team has won the division at least three times since New York last did it in 2011. But since a Giants division title would be an even bigger surprise than what Washington did last season, let’s keep it focused on the Commanders for now.
Quinn took the Falcons to the Super Bowl in his second season as Atlanta’s head coach, so he’s not one to temper expectations. The experience Daniels got and the poise he has already shown in fourth quarters of huge games should only help him moving forward.
Championship-seasoned veterans such as Bobby Wagner and Zach Ertz, who were brought in to help jump-start a fresh culture, are back for another run. Veteran cornerback Marshon Lattimore should be better than he was in his post-trade-deadline stint last season. And while there’s no reason to doubt the Eagles, it’s incredibly tough to repeat as champion in this division.
Dallas should be better with quarterback Dak Prescott back healthy, but Washington looks to have more than the Cowboys do. It’s very possible that the Commanders take another leap and finish on top in the East.
Baker Mayfield will lead the Buccaneers to another division title — and land a massive new contract
The Buccaneers have won the NFC South four years in a row — twice with Tom Brady and twice with Mayfield. The year before that streak started, they won the Super Bowl from a wild-card spot.
Tampa Bay has quietly been one of the most consistently good teams in spite of tons of changes, and Mayfield’s career resurgence has been a major reason for that. The Bucs got him for next to nothing before the 2023 season, then rewarded him with a three-year, $100 million contract prior to the 2024 season.
After this year, Mayfield will have one year and $27 million left on his deal. He’s only 30 years old, and if he leads the Bucs to a fifth straight division title with yet another new offensive coordinator, you have to believe he’ll be in line for an even bigger extension this time around.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The Falcons look like the top challenger, but they couldn’t unseat the Bucs last season even after beating Tampa Bay in both head-to-head matchups. Wide receiver Chris Godwin should be back for the Bucs from his season-ending ankle injury, and they made one of the sneaky-good offseason pickups in edge rusher Haason Reddick.
It’s fair to be concerned about the potential loss of left tackle Tristan Wirfs for the first month of the season because of a knee injury, or about the offensive coordinator leaving for a head coaching job for the second offseason in a row. But it would be unfair to believe the Bucs don’t have the ability to solve their own problems. Mayfield found a home in Tampa Bay and has been consistently productive since he got there. The Bucs deserve to be the division favorites. And if they win it again, Mayfield will have a strong case for a big raise.
