Matt Miller
Multiple Authors
Fernando Mendoza had a storybook 2025 season, which started with a transfer from Cal to Indiana and ended with him leading the Hoosiers to their first-ever national championship. That performance, which included a Heisman Trophy, made him the unquestioned QB1 in the 2026 NFL draft. But how does he compare to first-round quarterbacks of the recent past?
I answered that question by stacking all 17 first-round quarterbacks from 2021-2025, then adding Mendoza — my only signal-caller with a first-round grade for 2026 — to the mix. The list includes the likes of Trevor Lawrence, Bryce Young, Caleb Williams and Drake Maye.
I polled NFL scouts, decision-makers and analysts to help build the list, and predraft grades were the only consideration here. While I added each quarterback’s pro performance for additional context, it has no bearing on these rankings. This is just those 18 quarterbacks stacked together as if they were all in the same draft class.
So who is No. 1 on the list as the top QB prospect going back five years, and how does Mendoza compare?
Jump to top QB from each class:
2021 | 2022 | 2023
2024 | 2025 | 2026
Drafted: No. 1, Chicago Bears
Potential is a scary word when it comes to prospects, but Williams was (and still is) loaded with it. At 6-foot-1 and 220 pounds, he has excellent arm strength and the ability to create on the move. He’s a true playmaker and an artist, winning the Heisman Trophy in 2022, then throwing for 3,633 yards and accounting for 41 total touchdowns for USC in 2023.
Despite the enormous predraft hype, it has been a building process. After an uneven rookie season in which he finished 28th out of 33 qualified quarterbacks in QBR (46.7), Williams took a leap in 2025 under first-year coach Ben Johnson, throwing for a franchise-record 3,942 passing yards while leading the Bears to the divisional round of the playoffs. There are still accuracy concerns (he had the highest off-target percentage in the league, according to NFL Next Gen Stats), but he’s getting closer to realizing the hype he had entering the NFL.
Drafted: No. 1, Jacksonville Jaguars
Lawrence was deemed the next great NFL quarterback prospect before even taking a snap for Clemson. The consensus five-star prep recruit became a 2½-year starter for the Tigers, posting a 34-2 record and racking up 90 passing touchdowns in college.
Lawrence’s combination of arm strength, mobility, creativity and 6-foot-6 size stood out in the lead-up to the 2021 draft. After a rocky rookie season, he drastically improved with 25 touchdown passes in 2022, leading the Jaguars to an AFC South title and playoff win over the Chargers. After struggling in 2023 and playing an injury-shortened 2024, Lawrence caught fire in first-year coach Liam Coen’s offense last season, throwing for 4,007 passing yards and 29 touchdown to lead the Jags to a 13-4 record.
Drafted: No. 2, Washington Commanders
Daniels’ elite deep-ball throwing, ability to gash defenses with his legs and penchant for big plays led to a Heisman Trophy in 2023. The success of that season saw his draft stock rise from a potential Day 3 pick to No. 2 overall. The only concerns with Daniels were related to his leaner 6-foot-4, 210-pound frame, especially considering his aggressive running style. Some scouts also questioned if his breakout season at LSU was simply due to him being 23 years old and facing younger competition.
Daniels silenced those doubts in his historic Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign, leading Washington to its first NFC Championship Game since the 1991 season. The Commanders fell off a bit last season, as an array of injuries limited him to seven games. But he looks like one of the brightest young quarterbacks in the NFL when healthy.
Drafted: No. 3, New England Patriots
Maye drew comparisons to Justin Herbert for his size (6-foot-4, 225 pounds), arm strength and power as a runner. He improved the North Carolina offense as a redshirt freshman in 2022, throwing for 38 touchdowns and just seven interceptions while also running for seven more scores. Maye’s numbers were less impressive in 2023 (24 passing TDs, nine INTs), but his potential was still outstanding enough for the Commanders to consider Maye at No. 2 before the Patriots got him one pick later.
Maye started 13 games as a rookie in 2024 and played well on a bad 4-13 Patriots team. He took a huge leap in Year 2, leading the NFL in QBR (77.1) while accumulating 4,394 passing yards and 31 touchdowns to eight interceptions. He finished second in MVP voting and led New England to the AFC championship.
1:26
Why Stephen A. still believes in Drake Maye
Stephen A. Smith explains why he still has faith in Drake Maye despite a “precipitous drop-off” in the postseason for the Patriots.
Drafted: No. 1, Carolina Panthers
At Alabama, Young was a silky-smooth operator in the pocket with expert-level touch and timing. He was tough, poised and creative. His 5-foot-10, 204-pound frame is the only reason he ranked this low on the list — that hurt his predraft evaluation. Young followed up a Heisman-winning 2021 season by throwing for 3,328 yards, 32 touchdown passes and five interceptions for the Crimson Tide in 2022.
He struggled early in his NFL career and was benched early in his second season. But Young rebounded after winning back the starting job, finishing with the 12th-best QBR (65.8) from Week 10 until the end of the 2024 season. He was up-and-down in Year 3, finishing 22nd in QBR (47.6) but also throwing for 3,011 passing yards and 23 touchdowns in leading the Panthers to their first playoff berth in eight seasons.
Drafted: No. 2, New York Jets
It might seem like a distant memory now, but there were teams that had Wilson rated higher than Lawrence in the 2021 draft. Wilson played off-platform and off-schedule, dominating defenses with an excellent deep ball and awesome ability to evade pass rushers. He also hit his peak at the right time, coming alive in his junior season and shrugging off injury issues that plagued his first two seasons at BYU.
Wilson has become a cautionary tale after scouts propelled him up boards following a flashy season and flashier pro day workout. He was traded to the Broncos following three rough years in New York in which he threw 23 touchdown passes to 25 interceptions and completed just 57% of his passes. He did not get on the field with Denver in 2024 and made backup cameos in four games with the Dolphins last season.
Drafted: No. 2, Houston Texans
A 25-game starter at Ohio State, Stroud left college with a fantastic 21-4 record and a wild 85-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He hit every mark in terms of arm strength, mobility, poise and toughness. Some scouts raved about his final performance — a playoff showdown against Georgia — and his combine workout. And some preferred the known commodity of Stroud’s tape to the question mark of Young’s size in the lead-up to the 2023 draft. Stroud finished his last collegiate season with an 88.9 Total QBR (second in the nation) and completed 66.3% of his passes.
He hit the ground running in Houston, winning Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2023 and leading the Texans to playoff wins in each of his first three seasons. It hasn’t been all great, as Stroud had a bit of a sophomore slump in 2024 (12 interceptions and a 46.8 QBR) and threw four interceptions in Houston’s divisional round loss to the Patriots last season.
School: Indiana
My current overall ranking: No. 2
The top quarterback in the current draft class, Mendoza hasn’t received the hype of former No. 1 overall picks but is deserving of all the love as he enters his predraft cycle. Mendoza is a clean, crisp passer who excels with pinpoint accuracy, on-time decision-making and enough mobility to threaten defenses. “He’ll bore you to death and then beat you by 40 points,” said an AFC East scout.
Mendoza broke out in 2025, throwing for 3,535 passing yards, 41 touchdown passes and just six interceptions on his way to the Heisman and a national title. If that sounds a lot like what Joe Burrow did for LSU in his final season before being the No. 1 pick in the 2020 draft, it’s for good reason. Like Burrow, Mendoza is at his best in the pocket and seems to level up once defenses rough him up.
Drafted: No. 10, Minnesota Vikings
McCarthy left Michigan following his true junior season after leading the Wolverines to a national championship. Scouts were concerned about his relative lack of experience and eye-popping production in Jim Harbaugh’s offense, which was predicated on the run game and stout defense. Following a strong predraft process, McCarthy was my No. 4 quarterback in the 2024 class. But if he had stayed an extra year at Michigan, there’s no doubt he would’ve been the No. 1 QB in 2025.
McCarthy suffered a knee injury and missed his entire rookie NFL season after battling with Sam Darnold for the starting job during training camp. Injuries and inconsistency were problems for him last season, as he completed only 57.6% of his passes while throwing more interceptions (12) than touchdown passes (11). Therefore, his starting status is tenuous entering the 2026 season.
Drafted: No. 3, San Francisco 49ers
The 6-foot-4, 224-pound Lance started only 17 games — all against FCS teams — at North Dakota State, including one game in his final season. But that sample size was enough to convince Niners GM John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan to trade up for him. He wowed scouts with upside and his ability to torch defenses with both his running and field vision.
Lance’s NFL career never really got going, as he suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Week 2 of the 2022 season. Brock Purdy became the 49ers’ starter late that season and thrived, and Lance was traded to the Cowboys for a fourth-round pick prior to the 2023 campaign. Lance hasn’t played much since that trade, serving as the Cowboys’ third-string quarterback for two seasons before signing with the Chargers as a free agent in 2025. He started the regular-season finale for Los Angeles and played briefly in three other games.
Drafted: No. 4, Indianapolis Colts
Richardson perfectly personifies the ideal modern quarterback: big, strong and fast, with an arm that can easily fling the ball 75 yards when given room to operate. But he started only 13 games in college and had fewer than 300 pass attempts in a Florida offense that never found its footing under coaches Dan Mullen and Billy Napier. Richardson also completed only 54.7% of his passes and threw 24 touchdown passes to 15 interceptions in college. So while there was a ton of upside when the Colts took him with the No. 4 pick, there was also a lot of risk.
Richardson would be atop this list if it were all about physical traits. He has a huge arm and ran a 4.43-second 40-yard dash at the combine. But he had his detractors as a prospect due to a lack of experience and accuracy concerns. Those issues — plus a rookie season full of injuries — stunted his development.
In three seasons, Richardson has played in 17 of 51 possible games amid injuries, a brief benching in 2024, losing the starting competition to Daniel Jones prior to last season and a bizarre orbital fracture injury during pregame warmups in October. He has 13 interceptions to 11 touchdown passes, and 10 rushing touchdowns alongside nine fumbles. And Richardson has now been given permission by the Colts to seek a trade.
Drafted: No. 11, Chicago Bears
When Fields entered the draft, some scouts and evaluators saw him as equal to Lawrence, much like the two were coming out of high school in 2018. But others believed Fields was propped up by the scheme and talent around him at Ohio State. That’s part of the reason the two-time Heisman finalist, who went 20-2 with 67 touchdown passes to just nine interceptions, fell out of the top 10 in a quarterback-driven league.
Fields had a tough rookie season (31.4 QBR) but threw 17 touchdown passes and ran for 1,143 yards in 2022. Fields’ QBR dropped nearly 10 points in 2023 (56.3 to 46.9) before he was traded to the Steelers for a conditional sixth-round pick. He spent one season with Pittsburgh before signing a two-year deal with the Jets in free agency last offseason. Fields was limited to nine games with New York in 2025 because of injuries and inconsistency (57.7% completion percentage and a 37.8 QBR), putting his long-term NFL future in limbo.
Drafted: No. 15, New England Patriots
Jones, the fifth quarterback drafted in 2021, was a highly regarded pocket passer out of Alabama with limited upside but a safe floor. He led the FBS in completion percentage (77.4%) and was second in touchdown passes (41) in leading the Crimson Tide to the national championship in 2020.
Predraft comparisons to Matt Ryan and Chad Pennington pointed to a lack of elite arm strength and mobility in Jones’ game, but they also highlighted efficient, accurate passing traits. That was the case early in his career, as Jones completed 67.6% of his passes for 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions while leading the Patriots to the playoffs as a rookie.
Jones made the Pro Bowl that year, but his performance declined the next two seasons. He was traded to the Jaguars for a sixth-round pick in 2024 and played in 10 games after Lawrence was lost to injury, throwing eight touchdowns to eight interceptions. He saw a rebirth after signing with the 49ers last offseason, making eight starts for the injured Purdy. He threw for 2,151 passing yards and 13 touchdowns with a QBR of 62.3 and could be an attractive candidate for a QB-needy team to trade for this offseason.
Drafted: No. 12, Denver Broncos
Nix was graded as an early-Round 2 player with starter upside thanks to his accuracy, mobility and experience — he had a three-year stint at Auburn before joining Oregon in 2022. Nix’s ability to make plays on the move and leadership were huge pluses in his evaluation, but the biggest asset was his development over his final two years in college, culminating in a 45-touchdown season with only three interceptions in 2023. The major reason he wasn’t rated higher was his age, as he turned 24 prior to his rookie season.
Nix hit the ground running as a rookie, leading the Broncos to their first playoff berth since 2015. He built on that in his second season, throwing for 3,931 passing yards and 25 touchdowns in 2025 to help lead the Broncos to a 14-3 record and the AFC Championship Game. He fractured his ankle late in Denver’s divisional round win over the Bills, but Nix (54 passing touchdowns and nine rushing touchdowns in two seasons) has fit into Sean Payton’s offense nicely.
Drafted: No. 1, Tennessee Titans
Ward, who transferred from Incarnate Ward to Washington State and then finally to Miami, greatly improved each program he played for in college. In 2024, he led all FBS passers with 39 touchdown passes and finished second in passing yards (4,313). Ward has the arm talent to make every throw in the playbook, using a shortstop motion when necessary to find passing windows.
Evaluators were torn on Ward, though. Some scouts I spoke with thought he was a legitimate top-five player in his class and would be a Round 1 quarterback in most classes. Others believed he was closer to a Round 2 player who was elevated because of the poor top-end QB talent in his draft year. I tend to side with the second viewpoint.
Ward’s statistics were rough as a rookie, as he completed 59.8% of his passes for 3,169 passing yards, 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions. His QBR of 33.2 was 28th and last among all qualified quarterbacks. But his coach was fired early in his rookie season, and his QBR was much better in his last eight games (48.3, 20th) than his first nine (21.9, last), suggesting a potential Year 2 leap.
1:07
Brian Daboll excited to work with Cam Ward
Turron Davenport explains how excited Titans offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is to work with QB Cam Ward.
Drafted: No. 8, Atlanta Falcons
The biggest surprise of the 2024 first round by far was where Penix was selected and who took him. The Falcons loved his deep ball and development at Washington following three seasons at Indiana. Penix was red-hot to end his college career, throwing 67 touchdown passes to just 19 interceptions in his final two seasons. He led Washington to the Pac-12 title and the national title game in 2023 after an undefeated regular season.
Penix’s stock would have been higher, but there were concerns about him having four straight season-ending injuries and his age (24). The injury factor cropped up again in 2025, as he was sidelined after 10 games with a torn ACL. The Falcons’ original plan for Penix entering the NFL was to sit him behind veteran Kirk Cousins in 2024. But Penix ultimately played five games, starting three, as a rookie before taking the starting job last season, when he completed 60.1% of his passes for 1,939 passing yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions.
Drafted: No. 25, New York Giants
Dart didn’t rank as a first-round quarterback on my 2025 board, coming in at No. 37 overall, but the Ole Miss product emerged as a starter for the Giants once Russell Wilson proved to be ineffective. The Giants’ trade up and selection of Dart last April was seen as a reach by those around the league. But as one rival GM told me the week after the draft, “It doesn’t matter where you or I had him ranked if they needed a quarterback and think he’s the guy.”
Dart played well in his 15 games, throwing for 15 touchdowns to just five interceptions while showcasing a dual-threat ability (487 rushing yards, nine touchdowns) that allows him to move the chains once he can better protect himself. Injuries due to big hits while scrambling limited Dart’s availability and will be a crucial learning point as he enters Year 2.
Drafted: No. 20, Pittsburgh Steelers
The opinions on Pickett were mixed when asking evaluators to grade his game. He ended up being the only quarterback taken in the first round of a weak 2022 class, and the only one drafted in the first 73 picks (the best 2022 QB, Purdy, was selected with the final pick of the draft). Pickett threw 42 touchdown passes during his final season at Pitt, but he also lacked arm strength.
He completed only 63% of his throws and threw nine interceptions over 13 games as a rookie. Pickett wasn’t able to establish himself as the long-term answer in Pittsburgh, losing his starting job in 2023 before getting traded to the Eagles in 2024. He was traded twice more in 2025, from the Eagles to the Browns in the spring and from the Browns to the Raiders in the preseason.
